If we are to believe the USGS, there is a 90-100 per cent probability that a magnitude 7.6 (or higher) earthquake will hit the New York City area once every 4 million years. After one such earthquake, it will be about 4 million years until the next one strikes – give or take a little.

The problem is: we don’t know when the last large-magnitude earthquake hit the New York City area (since we only have data for the last 130 years or so). Maybe the last large-scale earthquake hit the New York City area almost 4 million years ago. If so, we can expect a 7.6 (or higher) earthquake in New York City just about now. And, unfortunately, this might be the case.

But you are right, it might also take another 4 million years before the next earthquake hits New York City – if the previous one hit just before recorded history. That would be great, but there is no way for us to know. And therefore: the numbers presented in a proposal for a nuclear power plant, doesn’t do much for us, except maybe giving us a false sense of safety. As the USGS map shows, there is a 90-100 per cent probability that a magnitude 7.6 or higher will hit. The keyword here is “higher”, indicating that it could be 8.1 or 8.6 – in principle all the way up to the theoretical maximum of 9.5.

In short: Rather than saying the probability is 1 in 40,000 that such an earthquake will hit in the next 100 years, it would be more correct to say: the probability is unknown. We humans have trouble with uncertainly, and – unfortunately – it seems as if we “prefer” (maybe unknowingly) to base our decisions on a flawed forecast, rather than acknowledging that we don’t know.

We would be better off if we learned to make decisions without the need for (misguided) predictions.

While it is true that the chances of a 7.6 earthquake in New York TODAY are exactly the same as they are on a particular day 4 million years from now, the probability that matters is whether such an event will occur within a specific window — the next 100 years, for the sake of this argument.

There are 36,525 days in the next 100 years. That’s 36,525 chances out of 1,461,000,000 OR 1 in 40,000 (0.0025%).

The odds of a Black Swan earthquake hitting New York while any of the current nuclear plants are operational is far too low to justify the proposed additional design and manufacturing cost. Remember that the corporations that build these things are driven soley by money, and that while the risk (1/40,000) might be enough for an individual to reconsider gambling with his own or a family member’s life, that same individual is unlikely to think twice about the lives of strangers with such a low risk when hundreds of millions of dollars are on the table.

I appreciate your comments. However, I’ve heard people say the current global warming is a consequence of solar activity only. It puzzles me how anyone can make such a claim.

Further, I didn’t say the climate crisis deniers don’t know about the Maunder Minimum, I only said that I strongly doubt anyone can predict the solar activity. If I’m correct about this, then it makes little sense to say: don’t worry, it’s just the natural cycle of the sun. And even if global warming isn’t man made, we might still be in trouble.

All the best,
Stefan

By the way, I just corrected the number of years to 366 – since this is 2011, not 2010. ;)

Whoa, that’s the same number of years since the last MM as there are days in the year. Ooooh that’s spooky.