I just turned a magic corner – the one quarter of a thousand hour corner. Eureka! My correspondence rating on Chess.com is now 1,618. Pretty good, in such a short time.
In three weeks from now there is an OTB tournament not far from here, and I really hope to go there. It will we a good experience, and I’ll get an official USCF rating.
In my earlier post, 80 percentile openings, I looked at the 15 most common four half moves. All these 15 lines begin with either e4 or d4, as these two first moves are used in 46 % and 35 % of all openings, respectively. After systematically going through all these 80 percentile lines, I now easily remember them all. So, I decided the next step would be to dive into one of them, and learn a little deeper. But which one?
Being someone who prefer more objective criteria, rather than just going at random, I’ve decided to dive into the King’s Knight Opening: Normal Variation. The one that goes 1 e4 e5, 2. Nf3 Nc6. Why? Because of the 15 lines, only 2 of them, King’s Knight Opening: Normal Variation and French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation didn’t expand after four half moves. What I mean by that is that these 2 lines had only one 80 percentile move after their second half move. And being rather new to all this opening theory, I though I’d better choose a line with not too much to remember.
So why not the French Defense? Well, for two reasons. First, the King’s Knight Opening is more common, so there is a higher chance of seeing it at the chess board. Secondly, while there are two 80 percentile replies to the forth half move in both of these openings, the most common reply to the King’s Knight Opening is almost 5 times as likely to occur as the second most common, whereas the most common reply to the French Defense isn’t even twice as likely to occur as the second most common reply. This means that, with the King’s Knight Opening, we can justify looking at only the main line, and – for now at least – neglect the second most common line. Doing this with the French Defense, and we could easily find ourselves in unknown territory after just 5 half moves. So, the King’s Knight Opening it is. Let’s dive in!
And in this position we are seemingly at cruising altitude, and can almost turn on the automatic pilot for the next 6 moves (12 half moves). The most common reply by White in this position is 3. Bb6, which occurs in no less than 68 % of all master games in the database. So, this is the line we will look at. It’s called the Ruy Lopez (C60).
After 3. Bb6, we will likely see 3…a7, as this is the reply in 77 % of all cases. And with our Bishop of Vanity threatened the next move is as good as obvious. It’s 4. Ba4. The only other move really worth considering is 4. Bxc6, but this only occurs in 11 % of all games, compared to 88 % for 4. Ba4. With 4. Bxc6 we would be on our way down the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation (C68), but we are sticking to 4. Ba4: theRuy Lopez: Columbus Variation (C68).
What’s Black’s reply? 4…Nf6, of course! Developing a piece, while threatening to capture the White pawn on e4. This is the reply in 87 % of the games in the database. So, will White defend his central pawn on e4? The answer is: most likely no! The 3 moves defending the pawn on e4 - 5. d3, 5. Qe2 and 5. Nc3 - only occur in 11 % of all the games, added together. Instead, expect White to play 5. O-O, leaving his e4 pawn fate in the hands of Black’s Knight. There is an 86 % chance of seeing this move, and the position is now called the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense (C78).
I just reached a new landmark: 200 hours of chess! I’m pretty obsessed about the game these days, getting in about 50 hours weekly. My ratings as of now (on Chess.com):
I’m clearly better at correspondence chess (and slow chess, in general), than the “lucky punch” kind of quick chess. My last recorded correspondence rating was 1,501, after 151 hours (5 days ago). So, my rating has increased by 20 points in 49 hours. If I can keep this rate of improvement up, I should have a rating somewhere between 1,800 and 2,000 when I celebrate my next birthday, in just about 200 days from now. This might be somewhat optimistic. However, I now feel more confident that I’ll reach my initial goal of 1,700 before my birthday.
Now, back to the board.
In an attempt to get a hold on all the openings out there, I’ve decided to begin be looking at the most common openings first, move by move. More specifically, I will systematically look at the 80 percentile reply to every move.
The most common first move is 1. e4. This is called King’s Pawn (B00), and is – according to Chess.com’s Master Games Database played in 46 % of all games. The second most common first move is 1. d4. It’s called the Queen Pawn Opening (A40), and is played in 35 % of all master games. Together these two first moves are played in 81 % of all games, above the 80 % threshold, and so, we will simply neglect the remaining 18 first moves, since they are played so rarely. By knowing the main lines for 1. e4 and 1. d4, we will know what to expect in most of the games we’ll ever play.
Replies to 1. e4
Most common is 1…c5, the Sicilian Defense (B20), played as the reply to 1. e4 in 46 % of all master games. Second is 1…e5, the King Pawn Game (C20), played in 22 % of the games in the database. Third is 1…e6, the French Defense (C00), the reply to 1. e4 in 13 % of the games. Together these three moves account for 80 % of all replies to 1. e4, so we will only consider these.
Replies to 1. d4
We needed three replies to 1. e4 to pass the 80 percentile threshold, but we’ll need to remember only two replies to 1. d4. First, 1…Nf6, the Indian Game (A45), played in no less than 61 % of all games in the database as a reply to 1. d4. Secondly,1…d5, the Queen Pawn Game (24 %). So, in 85 % of all games beginning with 1. d4, we can expect one of these two replies.
So far, so good. We now know the five most common string of moves for White and Black. Next, we’ll look at the 80 percentile reply for White to all of them, one by one.
Reply to 1. e4 c5, the Sicilian Defense
This one is easy, since one move accounts for 80 % of all replies, with the second most common used in only 8 % of all master games. The move is 2. Nf3, labeledSicilian Defense: Misc, Defenses (B27).
Reply to 1. e4 e5, the King Pawn Game
Another easy one, used in 88 % of all games in the database. The reply is the same as the previous one, namely 2. Nf3. It’s called the King’s Knight Opening (C40).
Reply to 1. e4 e6, the French Defense
Again, only one move to remember, the reply in 87 % of French Defense games. The move is 2. d4, and it’s called French Defense: Normal Variation (C00).
Replies to 1. d4 Nf6, the Indian Game
This time there are two moves to remember. The most common is 2. c4, the Indian Game: Normal Variation (A50), used in 70 % of all master games. The second is 2. Nf3, the Indian Game: Knights Variation (A46), played in 25 % of the games. In sum, these two replies account for 94 % of all replies to 1. d4 Nf6.
Replies to 1. d4 d5, the Queen Pawn Game
Again there are two moves to remember, and they are exactly the same as the previous two replies, namely 2. c4 and 2. Nf3. The first, 2. c4 (69 %) is called theQueen’s Gambit (D06). The second, 2. Nf3 (27%) leads to the Queen Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation (D02). Together they account for 96 % of all replies to 1. d4 d5.
The 2-5-7-rule
The first three half moves can easily be remembered with a little help from the 2-5-7-rule, saying: there are 2 first moves for White, 5 replies to these 2 first moves (3 for1. e4 and 2 for 1. d4), and 7 various combinations three half moves down the road. Let’s list them.
The 2 first half moves:
The 5 second half move combinations:
The 7 third half move combinations:
Now let’s look at Black’s possible replies to these 7 combinations.
Replies to 1. e4 c5, 2. Nf3 (Sicilian Defense: Misc, Defenses)
Here we have three replies: 2…d6, 2…Nc6 and 2…e6. First, 2…d6 (40 %), belonging to the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations (B50). Secondly, 2…Nc6 (30 %), theSicilian Defense: Old Sicilian (B30). And thirdly, 2…e6 (26 %), the Sicilian Defense: French Variation (B40). Adding up to 96 % of all Black replies to 1. e4 c5, 2. Nf3.
Reply to 1. e4 e5, 2. Nf3 (King’s Knight Opening)
This one is easy, with one move, 2…Nc6, making up 85 % of all replies to this line. It’s called King’s Knight Opening: Normal Variation (C44).
Reply to 1. e4 e6, 2. d4 (French Defense: Normal Variation)
After these first three half moves it’s as good as certain that we’ll see 2…d5. No less than 98 % of all replies to this line is followed be 2…d5. It’s called French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation.
Replies to 1. d4 Nf6, 2. c4 (Indian Game: Normal Variation)
Here we have two replies: 2…e6 and 2…g6. The first, 2…e6 (46 %) is called theIndian Game: East Indian Defense (E00). The second, 2…g6 (36 %) is the Indian Game: West Indian Defense (E61).
Replies to 1. d4 Nf6, 2. Nf3 (Indian Game: Knights Variation)
Here we have three replies: 2…g6, 2…d5 and 2…e6. The most common is 2…g6 (31 %), called the Indian Game: Pseudo-King’s Indian Variation (A49). Second up is2…d5 (28 %), and according to Chess.com’s Master Games Database it has no name. The third one, 2…e6 (26 %) doesn’t have a name either. Together these three lines are seen in 86 % of all cases.
Replies to 1. d4 d5, 2. c4 (Queen’s Gambit)
For the Queen’s Gambit we have two 80 percentile replies: 2…c6 and 2…e6. These two replies occur almost as often. The most common however is 2…c6 (43 %), and it’s called the Slav Defense (D10). The second, 2…e6 (38 %) is called the Queen’s Gambit Declined (D30). Together these two replies are seen in 81 % of all cases.
Replies to 1. d4 d5, 2. Nf3 (Queen Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation)
Here we have three different replies: 2…Nf6, 2…c6 and 2…e6. The first one, 2…Nf6is by far the most common, being the reply in 67 % of all cases. It’s called theQueen Pawn Game: Symmetrical Variation (D02). The last two replies occur in approximately the same number of cases, 11 % and 10 % respectively. According to the Master Games Database these two replies doesn’t have a specific name.
The 2-5-7-15-rule
We can now expand our 2-5-7-rule to the 2-5-7-15-rule, as we two moves (four half moves) down the line have 15 lines in the 80 percentile group. This is actually not so much to remember, especially when you go at it systematically like this. When the game begins White has 20 possible moves to choose between. Luckily, as the 2-5-7-15-rule tells us, we only have to consider 2 of these. Assuming we have 20 possible moves to choose between every move, there would be 400 moves at the second half move, 8,000 at the third half move, and 160,000(!) at the forth half move. That would be impossible to remember. Knowing that we only have to remember a tiny fraction of these, namely 15, is rather fortunate.
The 15 four half move combinations:
That’s it for now.
I’m absorbed in Silman’s “The Amateur’s Mind”, so I have little to say right now, except that: I’ve just reached 151 hours of chess, in a rather short time. My correspondence rating is 1,501 today, down from it’s peak at 1,648 a couple of days ago. Anyway, I’m more than pleased with my progress.
And now back to the book!
Eureka! I now have 123 hours of chess behind me, averaging about ten hours of play and practice daily. I have still played too few games to trust my rating, but it seems to be somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 – depending on what I’m playing. Blitz games are not my thing, I’m a slow thinker in seems.
Chess is great, for many reasons. One of them being that my bruised and battered body can be engaged in it for hours on end, without breaking down to dust. Inspired by Dan McLaughlin – who is aiming to become a pro golfer in 10,000 hours – I’ve decided to try my luck with chess, becoming a chess master in 10,000 hours. Had I chosen something more physically demanding, my body would have dictated the pace, and there would have been a ceiling to how many hours I could put in weekly. Not so with chess! Since I was a kid I’ve had an obsession with reading. I can read for ten-fifteen hours straight, without a single break. Only the burning sensation in my stomach now and then triggers me to head to the kitchen for something quick to throw down the hatch, while continuing reading. And with chess there is plenty of reading to be done, as well as playing of course, something I can also do without compromising my fragile body.
Within the last month or so, I’ve played some few games with a friend of mine, but it wasn’t until August 21 I got serious about chess, and opened an account at Chess.com. Since then, in 6 days, I’ve been entangled in this wonderful game of kings and their servants for 50 hours, including the approximately 10 hours of friendly games in the previous three-four weeks. In other words, I’ve been able to be in chess land for 6-7 hours daily, far more than would be possible with something taking a toll on my body, and not just my brain.
At this rate I should reach my 10,000 hours in about five years, if I push it a little more, I could reach 10,000 hours before I turn forty. Now that’s an intriguing idea!
After 47 hours of chess (2/3 of them within the last week), I’ve just passed a rating of 1,600 with Chess.com’s Chess Mentor! However, my other ratings are no where near this figure, especially my Blitz rating is poor, but one step at the time.
All these chess ramblings are inspired by The Dan Plan, an ordinary guy who is putting the 10,000 Hour Rule to the test, trying to become a pro golfer in 10,000 hours. I’m now doing the same, with chess. Admittedly, chess is not completely new to me, I played quite a bit as a kid, and have played a little here and there, but it’s been more than twenty years since I last took chess seriously.
Anyway, my ratings as of now, Friday, August 26, 2011, at 6 p.m., 47 hours in the pocket:
Clearly, I’m a slow thinker, as the difference between the Blitz games and the Standard games show. Also, it seems that tactics are my weakness. I think this is true, since I’m more of a strategic/positional player.
I need a goal to fuel me, so I’ve decided to aim at a chess rating of 1,700 before my next birthday in early April 2012. I do not have enough data to say for sure, but I think my rating currently hovers around 1,300, give or take a hundred. So, I’m aiming at an increase of 400 in a little more than seven months. I don’t know if this is realistic, but I’ll give it a short.
Yesterday I got somewhat obsessed with chess, playing for a couple of hours and reading chess theory until six o’clock in the morning. In an attempt to remember the essentials, I’ve decided to write some chess notes here for later reference. With a little luck they might be useful for others as well. I also want to keep track of the numbers of hours I have devoted to chess, inspired by the much hyped 10,000 Hour Rule.
What I’ve been studying is opening theory. Here’s the gist of it:
Openings can be classified in five ways:
The most common opening is e4, followed by d4, Nf3, c4, g3 and f4, in this order. For this obvious reason, I’ve decided to begin by diving into the King’s Pawn opening (e4) first, learning the best black replies to this. I will also decide witch opening I will specialize in when playing white. This will NOT be e4.
Chess hours so far: 47 (estimated), including the hours playing chess within the last month, at Friday, August 26, 6 p.m.