The first opening to learn
In my earlier post, 80 percentile openings, I looked at the 15 most common four half moves. All these 15 lines begin with either e4 or d4, as these two first moves are used in 46 % and 35 % of all openings, respectively. After systematically going through all these 80 percentile lines, I now easily remember them all. So, I decided the next step would be to dive into one of them, and learn a little deeper. But which one?
Being someone who prefer more objective criteria, rather than just going at random, I’ve decided to dive into the King’s Knight Opening: Normal Variation. The one that goes 1 e4 e5, 2. Nf3 Nc6. Why? Because of the 15 lines, only 2 of them, King’s Knight Opening: Normal Variation and French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation didn’t expand after four half moves. What I mean by that is that these 2 lines had only one 80 percentile move after their second half move. And being rather new to all this opening theory, I though I’d better choose a line with not too much to remember.
So why not the French Defense? Well, for two reasons. First, the King’s Knight Opening is more common, so there is a higher chance of seeing it at the chess board. Secondly, while there are two 80 percentile replies to the forth half move in both of these openings, the most common reply to the King’s Knight Opening is almost 5 times as likely to occur as the second most common, whereas the most common reply to the French Defense isn’t even twice as likely to occur as the second most common reply. This means that, with the King’s Knight Opening, we can justify looking at only the main line, and – for now at least – neglect the second most common line. Doing this with the French Defense, and we could easily find ourselves in unknown territory after just 5 half moves. So, the King’s Knight Opening it is. Let’s dive in!
And in this position we are seemingly at cruising altitude, and can almost turn on the automatic pilot for the next 6 moves (12 half moves). The most common reply by White in this position is 3. Bb6, which occurs in no less than 68 % of all master games in the database. So, this is the line we will look at. It’s called the Ruy Lopez (C60).
After 3. Bb6, we will likely see 3…a7, as this is the reply in 77 % of all cases. And with our Bishop of Vanity threatened the next move is as good as obvious. It’s 4. Ba4. The only other move really worth considering is 4. Bxc6, but this only occurs in 11 % of all games, compared to 88 % for 4. Ba4. With 4. Bxc6 we would be on our way down the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation (C68), but we are sticking to 4. Ba4: theRuy Lopez: Columbus Variation (C68).
What’s Black’s reply? 4…Nf6, of course! Developing a piece, while threatening to capture the White pawn on e4. This is the reply in 87 % of the games in the database. So, will White defend his central pawn on e4? The answer is: most likely no! The 3 moves defending the pawn on e4 - 5. d3, 5. Qe2 and 5. Nc3 - only occur in 11 % of all the games, added together. Instead, expect White to play 5. O-O, leaving his e4 pawn fate in the hands of Black’s Knight. There is an 86 % chance of seeing this move, and the position is now called the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense (C78).